09
October 2006
Nasrallah’s Waning Popularity
By Olivier Guitta
On
the evidence of a massive demonstration of Hezbollah supporters in South Beirut on September 22, one might conclude that the
terrorist army's commander,
Hassan Nasrallah, is surfing on a wave of popularity.
But
things are not as they appear. First, the “rent-a-crowd” tactic is well
known in that region of the world and does not necessarily
translate into popular
support. Furthermore, scores of these
demonstrators came from Africa and Iran. Nasrallah’s popularity, in other words, may not be a homegrown phenomenon.
Reinforcing that view is the
fact that voices of dissent are starting to
rise. A recent L’Orient Le
Jour poll shows that the majority of Lebanese, 51 percent, want
Hezbollah disarmed. Similarly,
the French daily Le Figaro cited a stunning statistic: 47 percent of Lebanese
do not think that Hezbollah
won this summer's war against Israel.
While one might have expected
the reversal of fortune of Nasrallah's movement among Christians and Sunnis, what's most surprising is that he
is being attacked by some major figures in
the Shi'ite community. One is the very well-respected
mufti of Tyre, Sayeed Ali
Al Amin. Like Nasrallah, he is a descendant of the prophet. In 1983, he was one of the
original founders of Hezbollah. Yet
he has been very vocal in attacking Nasrallah for what he calls
“his illegal war against Israel.”
Of that war, al-Amin has said: “Not only did Hezbollah not win the war
but it was wrong to start it, Hezbollah has violated
international resolutions and
the Blue line [the border with Israel]. This kidnapping operation
of the two soldiers was neither
legitimate nor necessary.”
Al
Amin's outspoken opposition has drawn
notice. A headline in the An Nahar
daily recently announced: “Ali Al Amin denies Amal and Hezbollah the right to speak for all the Shias." He has also vehemently
criticized Hezbollah’s allegiance
to Iran, which dearly cost the people of South Lebanon: “It’s not because
Hezbollah has excellent relations with Iran that it’s the same
for all Shias. Their allegiance should be to the motherland.”
Significantly, this is not the first
time that al-Amin has challenged Hezbollah on its home
turf. Following the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, al-Amin urged the
Lebanese army to fill the security
void in the south instead of Hezbollah. Then, three years
ago, al-Amin started a group composed of about
100 Shi'ite intellectuals
to call for reform and
propose an alternative to Hezbollah. Although the initiative did not last -- members were physically
threatened and the group failed to attract Western support -- it demonstrated that not all Lebanese Shi'ites march in lockstep with Hezbollah.
Other Shi'ite personalities,
too, are finally speaking out. For instance, the academic Mona Fayad
recently wrote in An Nahar that Shi'ites
“are a people of heroes who
know only one thing: to
sacrifice themselves.” Vibrant testimonies
are echoing this new rebellion against Hezbollah: the French Libération interviewed
Habib, a Shi'ite living in the
South, who asked: "What did we gain? Hundreds
of dead and destroyed houses. The winners are Syria and Iran; they manipulate us, it’s like they have the remote
control. The others are mum because they are scared of not getting the financial aid
from Hezbollah.”
Another major leader of the Shi'ite
community, Ahmad Al Assaad,
went further in criticizing Hezbollah. In a speech on September
17, he said: “Lebanese Shias are in danger
because of the policies followed in their names. Without the money and the
weapons, they could not speak in the name of all the Shias. Shias
do not want to suffer anymore; they want
to get rid of the culture of death.” Little by little, some in the Shi'ite
community are rebelling against Hezbollah.
At the same time, a Shi'ite political heavyweight, Nabih Berry, is gaining popularity
in his community. Berry is the head
of the Amal movement, which has traditionally been the rival Shi'ite movement to Hezbollah,
but has been politically marginalized
by Hezbollah since the early 1990’s. Now, for the first time in years, green Amal flags are outnumbering
Hezbollah’s yellow banners
in some southern villages. Some young people had never seen
that green flag before.
This
may turn out to be a rebirth of Amal. What is
more, if Amal really gains
traction among Shi'ites with its more moderate
views, it could mean real political trouble for Hezbollah. By attacking
Israel, Nasrallah recently admitted, he committed his
first major mistake. It may yet
turn out to be fatal.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Printable.asp?ID=24764
FrontPageMagazine.com
| October 6, 2006
Date: Mon, 13 Nov 2006 18:49:10 EST
That is your
wishful thinking. The coming days
will prove!!!